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tisdag 29 april 2014

Vladimir Putin - improving his image

 
Back in 1944 Josef Stalin sent all the Crimean Tatars, as well as Crimean Armenians, Greek, Germans and Bulgarians to central Siberia, claiming they were enemies to the Sovjet Union.  

In less than a week they were all gone from the Crimea peninsula, a lot of them died during the very hard trip with railroad heading east - maybe as many as 40 - 50 % ! 

The transportation was arranged by the secret police, called NKVD. Definatly not the kind of people you would like to use for travel planning. 

The deported could not return to the Crimean peninsula until 1989, maybe it is better to say the children and grandchildren of the deported returned - and today some 260 000 - 270 000 Tatars again live on the Crimaen Peninsula.

Recently Putin said he will sign a decree to rehabilitate the  people Josef Stalin deported back in 1940:ies.

This decree shall help the Tatars as well as others, like Armenians, Germans, Bulgarians and Greek, to once more settle in the old land.

So far Putin has mostly worried about his image amongst Russians. But now he is clearly working on his image also amongst the different ethnic groups within Russia.

Nobody can picture Josef Stalin worrying about his image, why should he - nobody was questioning his position ?  And if someone did, there was always a one way ticket to Siberia.  

But in April 2014 Vladimir Putin is working to improve his own image, not necessary worldwide, more like within Russia.

The more Putin stands up to the foreign politicians, and different foreign threats, the more popular he will be in Russia.

Putin realizes that in 2014 he to needs to have the right image amongst his fellow Russians. 


lördag 19 april 2014

Rysslands ekonomi bekymrar Cypern med flera


Nu i April 2014 hänger ekonomin i Europa ihop med ekonomin i den övriga världen, vare sig vi vill det heller inte. 

Enligt Forex kan vi idag köpa 5,39 Ryska Rubel för en Svensk Krona.
Det lär vara det billigaste på 20 år. 

När Rubeln sjunker och Rysslands ekonomi går ner så ger det bekymmer på Cypern. Cypern ser ryssarna som en viktig inkomstkälla.

I många år har ryssarna bidragit med välbehövligt kapital till Medelhavsön.

Även Turkiet, Egypten och Grekland har anledning att bekymmra sig när Rubeln sjunker och ryssarna stannar hemma istället för att åka utomlands på semestern. 

I 2013 besökte över 1 million ryssar Grekland. Ett mycket välkommet bidrag till landets pressade ekonomi. Lyckas sedan dom grekiska skattmasarna driva in lite mer skatt i 2014 så .....

Nu i 2014 tror många cyprioter att deras BNP kommer att krympa ytterligare jämfört med 2013. Både ryssar, ukrainare och  vitryssar välkomnas givetvis till ön, inga bekymmer där med att få ett visum.Att man ändå begär att dessa nationaliteter ska ha visum, hänger det troligen ihop med att via visumansökan kan man samla in lite extra information.

Det finns likheter mellan Cypern och Ukraina, Ukrainas nya regering sägs ha planer på att göra en "Cypern manöver", dvs att lägga en extra skatt på 1,5% på alla bankkonton i landet.
Bakgrunden till den extra skatten är att landet idag saknar ekonomiska tillgångar.  

Kriget i Syrien fortsätter, nu är det väl tredje året ?

Grekland är långt ifrån på fötterna igen, efter sin ekonomiska härdsmälta.

Fler och fler dåliga äpplen i korgen. 

fredag 18 april 2014

Are Nobel Laureates economic theories any useful ?



Each year we see one or more economists recieve a Nobel Prize, these winners are experts on how to act on economic issues. It all sounds very good.

But how good are their theories, do they actually work in practice?
And more important - Are they ever put to the test in real life ? 
Can they be used to help us today ?

Or is it that these geniuses get a Nobel Prize, and then there are no politicians using their theories when to act for their own country's economy.

If Nobel Laureates economic theories really are that good - well, then we should know how to act on financial matters - right?
We should know what went wrong, and also what to do to get back on track.

For some years much of Europe have limped economically, the rest limping a little back and forth and we all suffer from the massive youth unemployment.
 
It seems that our European politicians accepted that a lot of all needed production would be located in Asia?

What I know is the only CZ ( Czech Republic ) who have tried seriously to keep their jobs in the manufacturing industry. Unfortunately, it's just something I read in newspaper articles, just how good it is working - I do not know.
 
Did our European politicians wake up one morning, and discovered that the manufacturing industry had moved out during the night.

Now politicians seems to think they have to ensure that people can keep on borrowing money, to keep on shopping and to keep our economy going ?

Unfortunately, the things people shop are mostly made in China, so there will be very few new manufacturing jobs here in Europe – no matter how much we shop.

Going
shopping will often benefit China, more than it benefits Europe. 
 
And if people in Europe have to borrow more and more money to consume, then something must be wrong, or ?

For how long can we borrow to buy the Chinese stuff - how long before the bubble bursts?

Since the 70s, the Swedish "Krona" has been repeatedly devalued, sometimes devaluation was planned by politicians, and sometimes it was with the market system - a kind of jungle thing.

What do I mean by market system:

If a country is doing economically bad, the country's currency will be affected and go down in value versus other currencies.

And if the economy improves, the country's currency will rise in value compared to other currencies.  
Of course the Euro Countries are all together in this aspect.

Now we will see more competitive devaluation, Japan and the United Kingdom are sad to be running the printing presses at full speed.

First, it was necessary to keep interest rates down, now I add an ace out of my sleeve - increasing the money supply.

It should become a toxic combo!  
Did someone get a Nobel Prize for this one ?

A bit like if you have a headache and takes some different kind of headache pills and run in the blender with a little water and then hope that it will relieve pain better than just one kind of pills.