On the second day of Christmas.

On the second day of Christmas, on the 26th of December 2014, I was enjoying the good company of my wife and our son and his family.  Having a good time.

But not everyone was taking a day off.
In Russia they were busy testing the RS-24 Yars, an ICBM - or a InterContinental Ballistic Missile.
This solid fuel missile has a operating range of some 7500 miles !
And it is a mobile system ! 

Let it be said that they do not celebrate Christmas at the same time as we do in Western Europe. Since the Russian Orthodox church still use the Julian calender.
I believe there is a time difference of some 13 days.

So they did not do this testing of the RS-24 missile in between Christmas parties. 
When the test took place, they still had almost 2 weeks to get the Xmas presents.

President Putin stated, a month ago - in November - that these missiles can penetrate any missile shield !

I am not saying that this keeps me awake in the night - but Russian Federation, and Mr. Putin are really flexing their muscles.

Let us hope it stays with that - I wish you all a Happy New Year.

Russian December Campaign 2014

December 2014,when visiting IndianPrime Minister Narenda Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed helping India to build 10 new nuclear reactors.
And not only nuclear power, the two countries will also work together when building hydroelectric power dams. 
Russia will also supply India with oil and gas, giving India a much needed boost in energy supply.
Since trouble in Ukraine made Russian cooperation with the West more difficult, Russia have turned to countries like India and China.

It may look good for Mr. Putin to find new markets like this for Russian energy technology, and of course it is. The rubel has been seriusly affected by the much limited trade Russia are seeing westwards.

But, there is also problems in this relation. Indias choice of buying French fighter aircrafts, and American helicopters, is not to Putins liking.
Probably India has been informed that Russian defence industrie will be more than happy to supply all kinds of defence equipment to the Indian military.  

The Power of Siberia GTS.

The building of the huge pipeline from the middle of Sibirea to China is well on its way.

The deal with China was signed May the 21, on May 23 the contract for building of the pipeline was signed.

Welding the first joints of this pipeline are planned to August this year, Gazprom and Russia has no time to lose.

The pipline is called The Power of Siberia, sometimes with GTS in the end.

GTS simply means Gas Transportion Systems. 

The Power of Siberia will go all the way to Khabarovsk, where existing pipelines will take the gas further - for instance to Vladivostok.

Vladivostok is a great place if you want to sell gas to Japan and South Korea. 

The town of Blagoveshchensk is situated nearby the border to China, this is the most likely point to transport the gas into China.

On the other side of the border China will build the pipeline to take the gas on to Chinese factories and consumers.

The $ 400 billion Shanghai LNG gas deal.

Starting in 2018 Russia shall begin to deliver Siberian gas to China, until 2048.

This will call for a new pipeline from Siberia to the big Chinese cities along the coast.

This will also be a big break-through for Chinas war against pollution, a much needed action. 

Russia will build the pipeline to the Chinese border, and China will build what is needed within China.

Vladivostok will be the centre in Russia, and the city will see a large new LNG plant. 

The Russian politician Alexei Pushkov said this shows that the USA and EU are not able to isolate Russia...

The contract was signed on May 21, 2014, by Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counter part Xi Jinpeng in Shanghai.  

The price of this russian gas is not disclosed, but should be somewhere around $ 350 per thousand cubic metres.

This is a big deal moneywise for Russia, but still Western Europe and Turkey are buying 4 or 5 fold what China will be buying.

The biggest value is probably all the PR for Russia and for Putin.

The conflict with EU and also USA did speed up closing this deal - talks have been going on for almost 10 years.

Now when the deal is closed Putin will be pleased, he showed Mrs Merkel and Mr Obama that he still have friends - in new places.

The Chinese will also be pleased - this gasdeal will most likely be more economical than existing contracts.  

Water war on Putin, and the Crimean peninsula.

Ukraine is hitting The Crimean peninsula, and Putin, with what they have -  water supplies !

Just like Russia can ( and have done ) trottle the gas to some neigbouring countries.

Just like gas for heating your home, also water is necessary to us all. 

On the Crimean peninsula, drinking water and water for farming is in short supply.

The soon to be famous north Crimean Canal takes water from the big Dnieper river to the peninsula, something like 400 km.

This single canal is said to supply some 80% of the water used on the Crimean peninsula.

Funny how often the 80 - 20% is used.

It so happens that 80% of the Russian gas transported to western European passes through pipelines across Ukraine soil.    

Following the tense relations Ukraine decided to cut down on the water in the canal - from the normal 80 - 90 cubic meters, all the way down below 10 cubic meters. Some say this is the lowest possible level for the North Crimean canal.

To the farmers producing rice, grapes and other crops are now facing a shortage of water.

Amonst many Russians the Americans and NATO is something unknown and bad, it is like someone you would use to scare the kids...

The economy of the Crimean peninsula is going to be hit by this water shortage in the short run, more or less.
In the long run there will efforts made to solve the water supply - like new wells ( if possible ) and maybe a pipeline from Russia.

There is a lot of water surrounding the peninsula - desalting sea water is one way. Ok, a bit costly for farming water - but ok for drinking water.

Russia will try and solve this problem as soon as possible, stating that there will be no problem to get drinking water. Water for farming is more difficult, to start with, farmers on the peninsula will be compensated for their losses - not a 100%, but still compensated.

Putin is now more popular than ever, since he brought back the Crimean peninsula to Russia, he should be very pleased.

To move on and try a take over of all of Ukraine - would not add much to his popularity in Russia, but it would affect his image world wide in a bad way. 



Addition 20:th of Maj
Yesterday we heard that Putin has ordered his troops back from the area nearby the Ukraine border.
Also he goes to Shanghai himself yesterday, a move to take the focus from the Crimea affaire ?

Turning to China is a way of taking the edge of any threats of isolation from Western Europe, USA and many more countries.

Then, it would be a great thing if China could use some Russian natural gas, in stead of burning all that coal...
The smoke from Chinese powerplants powered by coal do travel a long way.

I dont like to talk badly about coal - but burning coal does take a certain amount of cleaning the fumes / smoke. 
It does not seem like the cleaning devices are working on all Chinese powerplants, - judging from reports about pollution in Chinese cities. 

Vladimir Putin - improving his image

 
Back in 1944 Josef Stalin sent all the Crimean Tatars, as well as Crimean Armenians, Greek, Germans and Bulgarians to central Siberia, claiming they were enemies to the Sovjet Union.  

In less than a week they were all gone from the Crimea peninsula, a lot of them died during the very hard trip with railroad heading east - maybe as many as 40 - 50 % ! 

The transportation was arranged by the secret police, called NKVD. Definatly not the kind of people you would like to use for travel planning. 

The deported could not return to the Crimean peninsula until 1989, maybe it is better to say the children and grandchildren of the deported returned - and today some 260 000 - 270 000 Tatars again live on the Crimaen Peninsula.

Recently Putin said he will sign a decree to rehabilitate the  people Josef Stalin deported back in 1940:ies.

This decree shall help the Tatars as well as others, like Armenians, Germans, Bulgarians and Greek, to once more settle in the old land.

So far Putin has mostly worried about his image amongst Russians. But now he is clearly working on his image also amongst the different ethnic groups within Russia.

Nobody can picture Josef Stalin worrying about his image, why should he - nobody was questioning his position ?  And if someone did, there was always a one way ticket to Siberia.  

But in April 2014 Vladimir Putin is working to improve his own image, not necessary worldwide, more like within Russia.

The more Putin stands up to the foreign politicians, and different foreign threats, the more popular he will be in Russia.

Putin realizes that in 2014 he to needs to have the right image amongst his fellow Russians. 

Rysslands ekonomi bekymrar Cypern med flera

Nu i April 2014 hänger ekonomin i Europa ihop med ekonomin i den övriga världen, vare sig vi vill det heller inte. 

Enligt Forex kan vi idag köpa 5,39 Ryska Rubel för en Svensk Krona.
Det lär vara det billigaste på 20 år. 

När Rubeln sjunker och Rysslands ekonomi går ner så ger det bekymmer på Cypern. Cypern ser ryssarna som en viktig inkomstkälla.

I många år har ryssarna bidragit med välbehövligt kapital till Medelhavsön.

Även Turkiet, Egypten och Grekland har anledning att bekymmra sig när Rubeln sjunker och ryssarna stannar hemma istället för att åka utomlands på semestern. 

I 2013 besökte över 1 million ryssar Grekland. Ett mycket välkommet bidrag till landets pressade ekonomi. Lyckas sedan dom grekiska skattmasarna driva in lite mer skatt i 2014 så .....

Nu i 2014 tror många cyprioter att deras BNP kommer att krympa ytterligare jämfört med 2013. Både ryssar, ukrainare och  vitryssar välkomnas givetvis till ön, inga bekymmer där med att få ett visum.Att man ändå begär att dessa nationaliteter ska ha visum, hänger det troligen ihop med att via visumansökan kan man samla in lite extra information.

Det finns likheter mellan Cypern och Ukraina, Ukrainas nya regering sägs ha planer på att göra en "Cypern manöver", dvs att lägga en extra skatt på 1,5% på alla bankkonton i landet.
Bakgrunden till den extra skatten är att landet idag saknar ekonomiska tillgångar.  

Kriget i Syrien fortsätter, nu är det väl tredje året ?

Grekland är långt ifrån på fötterna igen, efter sin ekonomiska härdsmälta.

Fler och fler dåliga äpplen i korgen. 

Are Nobel Laureates economic theories any useful ?

Each year we see one or more economists recieve a Nobel Prize, these winners are experts on how to act on economic issues. It all sounds very good.

But how good are their theories, do they actually work in practice?

And more important - Are they ever put to the test in real life ? 
Can they be used to help us today ?

Or is it that these geniuses get a Nobel Prize, and then there are no politicians using their theories when to act for their own country's economy.

If Nobel Laureates economic theories really are that good - well, then we should know how to act on financial matters - right?
We should know what went wrong, and also what to do to get back on track.

For some years much of Europe have limped economically, the rest limping a little back and forth and we all suffer from the massive youth unemployment.
 

It seems that our European politicians accepted that a lot of all needed production would be located in Asia?

What I know is the only CZ ( Czech Republic ) who have tried seriously to keep their jobs in the manufacturing industry. Unfortunately, it's just something I read in newspaper articles, just how good it is working - I do not know.
 

Did our European politicians wake up one morning, and discovered that the manufacturing industry had moved out during the night.

Now politicians seems to think they have to ensure that people can keep on borrowing money, to keep on shopping and to keep our economy going ?

Unfortunately, the things people shop are mostly made in China, so there will be very few new manufacturing jobs here in Europe – no matter how much we shop.

Going shopping will often benefit China, more than it benefits Europe. 
 

And if people in Europe have to borrow more and more money to consume, then something must be wrong, or ?

For how long can we borrow to buy the Chinese stuff - how long before the bubble bursts?

Since the 70s, the Swedish "Krona" has been repeatedly devalued, sometimes devaluation was planned by politicians, and sometimes it was with the market system - a kind of jungle thing.

What do I mean by market system:

If a country is doing economically bad, the country's currency will be affected and go down in value versus other currencies.

And if the economy improves, the country's currency will rise in value compared to other currencies.  

Of course the Euro Countries are all together in this aspect.

Now we will see more competitive devaluation, Japan and the United Kingdom are sad to be running the printing presses at full speed.

First, it was necessary to keep interest rates down, now I add an ace out of my sleeve - increasing the money supply.

It should become a toxic combo!  

Did someone get a Nobel Prize for this one ?

A bit like if you have a headache and takes some different kind of headache pills and run in the blender with a little water and then hope that it will relieve pain better than just one kind of pills.